The tariff war between China and the United States is not only about economics, but also geopolitical competition. This feud reflects the strategic conflict of two great powers competing for international influence with technological control being the key to dominance.
Before this tariff war, experts had warned that China and the United States (US) would eventually face each other. Graham Allison in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (2017) is concerned that the tension between the two countries could end in war. As a new power, China is not only growing economically, but also in political influence and especially technology that challenges US dominance.
The term "Thucydides' Trap" is taken from the description of the ancient Greek historian, Thucydides, who stated, "When a new power rises and challenges the old power that is in power, the possibility of war is very high." An example is the Peloponnesian war between Athens (rising power) and Sparta (established power). Allison studied similar cases in history and found that 12 out of 16 ended in war.
The concept of Thucydides’ Trap may oversimplify the causes of conflict, as if the rise of a new power inevitably ends in war. History cannot be condensed into such a definite law. There are many other variables, such as ideology, economics, international institutions, and leadership.
For now, the shadow of open war seems to be ignored, but rather leads to a new Cold War. The difference is, the Cold War between the US and its allies against the Soviet Union in the period 1947-1991 focused on military and nuclear power, with ideological differences dividing the world. The Cold War now focuses more on technology and digital economic dominance.
New battlefield of conflict
Strategic technology competition is at the heart of this new Cold War. Whoever controls imitation intelligence (AI or artificial intelligence), semiconductors and chips, digital infrastructure and big data, and clean energy is considered to control the future of the world.
China began to build its strength in this strategic technology field after opening up to the world and learning from the West since the 1990s. During this period, China sent many scholars abroad, including the US. Not only do they get doctoral degrees, China actively encourages them to become experts, even lecturers at their destination campuses as part of a long-term strategy.
At the same time, China began to strengthen domestic campus and research institutions, especially those related to new technologies. According to the OECD and the World Bank, China allocates more than 2.5 percent of its GDP to research and development and that number has continued to rise since the early 2000s.
On the one hand, the lure of cheap labor and a promising market also attracts industrial giants, including world technology, to invest in China. And, as the research infrastructure and technology industry in the country matures, China calls back diaspora scientists through the "Thousand Talents Plan" program.
They are lured with high salaries, large research funds, and facilities at universities and laboratories. The diaspora who remain in their foreign countries are also given space to collaborate with domestic institutions.
Several big names have returned to China and brought great influence, including Shi Yigong, a molecular biologist who graduated from Johns Hopkins University and was once a professor at Princeton University. He left China in 1990 and returned in 2008 to become vice president of Tsinghua University, and later founded Westlake University, a new science and technology university that has spawned many bioengineering innovations.
Another example is Lu Qi, who left China for a doctoral degree in the US in 1989. After graduating, he worked at several major US tech companies, including IBM, Yahoo!, and Microsoft. He returned to China in 2017, becoming COO of Baidu, before founding Y Combinator China (YC China) and MiraclePlus, local versions of the famous Silicon Valley start-up accelerator.
There are many other examples of Chinese scientists returning, which has made China overtake the US in publications in several fields of science and engineering since 2018. China has also become the country with the most scientific publications in the world, especially in strategic fields, such as AI, materials science, and renewable energy.
When the technology ecosystem is ready, China encourages technological independence. In 2015, China launched the "Made in China 2025" program with the target of dominating the high-tech sector. Since then, the US has been wary.
Donald Trump, who became US President, in his first term began to launch a trade war against China. He then blacklisted Huawei (2019), restricted NVIDIA chips which are the brains for the development of graphics processing units, and banned TikTok.
It is interesting to see TikTok in the midst of this war. The US accuses TikTok of being a tool for the Chinese government to access citizens' personal data, in addition to concerns that this social media platform could be a weapon to influence public opinion.
Big data and algorithms are an important part of the technology war. This is a real example of modern technology warfare.
In his second term, Trump increasingly sees China as a threat. With the slogan "Make America Great Again", he has implemented high tariffs widely, in addition to technology, also agricultural products, heavy industry, and consumer goods that are the source of the US trade deficit. Moreover, Trump has also expanded the proxy battle by imposing tariffs on many other countries.
This has caused large US companies that invest abroad, especially in China, to start pulling out. So, beyond the economic impact that will be felt globally, the withdrawal of cooperation between the two largest science and technology powers could risk damaging the scientific ecosystem. This technological cold war could trigger global scientific fragmentation at a time when cooperation and technology transfer are urgently needed to address major challenges such as the climate crisis to the threat of new pandemics.
Source: kompas.id
Source: kompas.id
